General News
5 December, 2022
Authorities warn against complacency as bushfire outlook predicts a ‘varied’ fire potential
While reports suggest a ‘below normal’ fire season awaits the Central Goldfields Shire, authorities are advising residents against complacency — warning things could change at any moment. The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities...
While reports suggest a ‘below normal’ fire season awaits the Central Goldfields Shire, authorities are advising residents against complacency — warning things could change at any moment.
The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC), released its Seasonal Bushfire Outlook report last month, outlining the expected fire conditions for the upcoming summer period.
Although many areas in Australia experienced above average rainfall and significant flooding, fire risk hasn’t been mitigated due to saturated grounds in regions leading to increased vegetation and fuel load, according to the report.
Added growth, paired with potential warmer and drier conditions expected to roll in the next couple of months, is giving way to a ‘varied fire potential’ this summer.
As the normal seasonal cycle progresses, vegetation will also continue to dry out — increasing the fire potential, which may rise swiftly during extended hot and windy periods.
“This means that it is possible for regions of below normal bushfire potential at the start of summer to transition to normal, or even above normal, bushfire potential later in the season,” the report stated.
However currently, parts of Victoria including the Central Goldfields Shire, NSW and the ACT are continuing to exhibit below normal levels as a result of “increased fuel moisture, the continued wet outlook and reduced fuel loads following the 2019-20 bushfire season”, according to AFAC.
Expected wet conditions are the result of climate drivers like La Niña, which is likely to impact the weather well into the summer. The outlook notes that in the past, forest fire activity in eastern parts of the country have been low during a La Niña.
Despite this, the community can still be at risk and proper measures need to be taken to avoid extensive damage, according to Goldfields group officer Peter Higgins.
“We have to be very careful that we’re not complacent. Because we’ve had lots and lots of rain, and we’ve also had lots and lots of growth. And now we’re starting to get a bit of a dry patch,” he said.
“If in the next two or three weeks we don’t have significant rain and we have warm, dry winds, things could look very different.”
Mr Higgins said this possible change in weather means that the shire might head into a late fire season.
“We could be faced with a late season in January. We might get rain events now until Christmas, they might be small or large. But if it goes away after that, we could be looking at a delayed fire season,” he said.
“A lot of what happens in the next month or two, purely and simply in relation to weather patterns, whatever happens is crucial to what will happen in January and February.
“If the rain disappears, it will dry and fires will run.”
Apart from a late season, the shire is also less likely to face a forest fire but grass related incidents remain a concern.
“I don’t think we’re going to have a major problem with the forest areas because they’re so wet. The groundcover is probably going to stay wet so it shouldn’t be too bad,” Mr Higgins said.
“The problem we face however is with running grass fires. When the sun is predicted to be 30-31 degrees with northerly winds, it will dry and cure a lot of grass.
“We have a lot seasonal grasses like wild oats that have already been cured. So, we need to be really careful.”
Part of being careful and alert is taking all the necessary precautions required before fires start spreading and things become unmanageable.
“The biggest problem we face is complacency because people think we’ve had a record amount of rain. But now all of a sudden we look at the backyard and realise that it is all dry,” Mr Higgins said.
“We’ve all been complacent with our cleanup around the house, so I suggest we do it now while we still can. The problem is that in a normal season, we would have done the cleanups and burn offs a month ago.
“People should try and get their cleanup done by Christmas. The best way to stop fires is prevention — if it’s got nothing to burn, it won’t.
“Don’t become complacent or it’ll come back to bite you.”
To read the full Seasonal Bushfire Outlook visit www.afac.com.au